Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-chairman Tino Chrupalla (R) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-chairwoman and top candidate Alice Weidel hug and celebrate after exit polls announced
The conservative CDU/CSU party is set to be the largest party in the next German parliament with 30% of the vote, according to the first two exit polls
Friedrich Merz, who is now in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, hailed a “terrific election campaign” and said there’s no time to waste in forming a government
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to become the second biggest force in the country, with a record 20% of the vote, according to exit polls
Millions voted in Germany for a new federal government after the three-party coalition fell apart at the end of last year, prompting a snap election
Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democrats have an unassailable lead, BBC’s Paul Kirby writes, but it is not clear-cut if he can form a coalition with just one other party
The Christian Democrats have been celebrating in Berlin. The CDU is expected to be the largest party in the next German parliament with 30% of the vote
There was also jubilation at the AfD’s HQ. The far-right party is set to become the second biggest force in the country, with a record 20% of the vote, according to exit polls
SPD supporters in Berlin
The atmosphere was rather more sombre among Social Democratic Party (SPD) supporters in Berlin, after exit polls put them behind the AfD
Green co-leaders Franziska Brantner and Felix Banaszak i
And there were some surprised looks from Green co-leaders Franziska Brantner and Felix Banaszak. Exit polls have them coming just behind the SPD
Here’s a summary of what’s been happening since polls closed in Germany:
The conservative CDU/CSU party is set to be the largest party in the next German parliament with 30% of the vote, according to the first two exit polls
Friedrich Merz, who is now in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, hailed a “terrific election campaign” and said there’s no time to waste in forming a government
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to become the second biggest force, with a record 20% of the vote, according to exit polls
“We have received the confidence of the voters and that should be something everybody else accepts as well,” AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla said
As predicted, it’s been a bad night for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democrats (SPD)
Sholz said the election results are “bitter” for his party, calling it a “defeat”
Attention now turns to who Merz will try to form a coalition. Latest projections suggest he won’t be able to solely rely on the SPD, and he has previously said he won’t enter a coalition with the AfD
Nick Beake
Reporting from AfD headquarters in Berlin
arty co-leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel in an embraced, as people wave German flags around them
Image source,Reuters
Image caption,
AfD co-leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel
What AfD leader, Alice Weidel, has been saying to the party faithful in the past hour is that basically there is a real democratic deficit here.
In other words, her party is expected to be the second biggest in Germany, but because all the other parties say they won’t work with the AfD, they’re not going to form part of the next coalition government.
Weidel was suggesting the next elections may come much sooner than people think. The inference there is that the AfD is going to be as difficult as possible in opposition.
If elections come early, the AfD believes momentum is on their side and that the party is in a really strong position to increase their vote even further.
Because, remember, this time they’ve doubled their share of the vote compared with the last election.
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Projection: What will the next parliament look like?
published at 19:36
19:36
Here’s an initial idea of how today’s election may have changed the make-up of German politics. The big section of pale blue indicates how far the AfD has come.
But this image could still change dramatically.
We don’t yet know if two of the smaller parties will get into the Bundestag – the populist left BSW and the liberal FDP are currently on 0 seats. But they are both very close to the 5% that they need to have MPs
Projected view of the new parliament
A projection from Germany’s other public broadcaster ZDF suggests the BSW party of Sahra Wagenknecht will get the 5% it needs to get into the Bundestag.
If that’s confirmed, the seat numbers will change, and coalition-building for Friedrich Merz will become even trickier.
Projected Bundestag if the populist left get in
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‘We have won the election’
published at 19:29
19:29
Kristina Volk
Reporting from CDU headquarters in Berlin
Friedrich Merz and Markus Soeder about to give eachother a handshake
Image source,Reuters
Image caption,
Christian Social Union (CSU) chairman Markus Söder and Friedrich Merz
Merz was greeted with cheers when he stepped onto the stage at the CDU headquarters in Berlin.
He was joined by the head of the CSU, Markus Söder, thanked the voters for their trust and proclaimed: “We have won the Bundestag election”.
He says it has been “a historic election night” for his conservative party, and that the CDU and its sister party in Bavaria, the CSU, “worked very well together and prepared very well for this election”.
Merz adds that he is “aware of the responsibility that now lies ahead” of him.
He tells the crowd that they need to “quickly regain our ability to act so that we can do the right thing at home, so that we are once again present in Europe, so that the world can see that Germany is being governed reliably again”.
But that starts tomorrow, he says. Right now, it’s time to celebrate.
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Analysis
Who’s won and who’s lost?
published at 19:13
19:13
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin
There are three winners in this race. That much is clear from latest projections:
Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU),
the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD)
and the Left Party
The CDU are heading for about 29% and Merz says he will get to work on forming a coalition tomorrow morning.
The AfD is hovering at just under 20% and leader Alice Weidel is right in claiming a “historic result” for the party – up by more than nine points on the 2021 election.
The other big winner is the Left, which has surged to well over 8%, partly because of a highly successful social media campaign.
The big losers are the three parties of the outgoing government:
Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) who are heading for a historically low result,
the Greens
and the economic liberals, the FDP, who may well not get into parliament at all
It’s too early to say who Merz will try to govern with, but latest projections suggest it won’t be easy, and it doesn’t look like relying solely on the Social Democrats will be enough.
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Scholz says he will ‘never accept’ the AfD
published at 19:08
19:08
Olaf Scholz smiles and waves to supporters. He is wearing a white shirt, blazer blazer, and black trousers.
Image source,Getty Images
More now from Olaf Scholz, who tells supporters in Berlin that “we are fighting for democracy”.
“Now we have the far-right – the AfD – and the fact they got such a good election result is something we cannot accept and I will never accept,” the Social Democrats (SPD) leader says.
As a reminder, the two exit polls showed AfD receiving the second largest portion of the vote share.
“We need to stick to what we have always said, we mustn’t work with the far-right”, Scholz says, adding that he hopes other political parties will “keep that promise”.
He moves on to say that he wants “a united” SPD that “really makes sure that social democracy remains [an] important political force in the future”.
“I am convinced that… our values are important so that our country remains significant,” the German chancellor says.
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‘We have to acknowledge we have lost the election’ – Scholz
published at 18:59
18:59
olaf scholz on stage, looking down with his eye closed
Image source,Reuters
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), says the election results are “bitter” for his party, calling it a “defeat”.
As a reminder, the exit polls showed the SPD coming in third, with 16-16.5% of the vote.
Speaking to supporters in Berlin, Scholz says it is a moment “in which we have to acknowledge we have lost the election”.
In the previous election, he says, the party had a “better” result that he was “responsible” for, adding that this result “is worse, and I am responsible for that too”.
Scholz goes on to congratulate Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democrats party.
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Merz hails ‘terrific election campaign’
published at 18:48
18:48
Merz
Friedrich Merz, who is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, has been speaking at his party headquarters.
He hailed a “terrific election campaign” but spoke of his “respect for our political opponents”.
Quote Message
Now we will talk together and it’s important to form a government as soon as possible… The world outside is not waiting for us.
Friedrich Merz, Christian Democrats leader
“Everybody in the world sees that Germany has a reliable and trustworthy government,” he said, adding that “now we can also actually party here”.
“Tonight we will be celebrating and as of tomorrow we will be resuming our work.”
Read more – Friedrich Merz: Risk-taker who flirted with far right
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‘Germany has become a bit more normal’ – senior policy fellow
published at 18:45
18:45
Dr Jana Puglieren. She has blue eyes and short blonde hair.
Dr Jana Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations says she believes the exit poll results are in line with a “broader trend throughout Europe”.
“I think Germany has become a bit more normal, we have been an outlier in Europe with relatively small numbers of the far-right,” she says, referring to the rise of the AfD.
The senior policy fellow tells the BBC that this is “worrying me greatly”, adding that a new coalition government will have to deliver.
It was “crucial” for the leader of the conservative CDU party, Friedrich Merz, to have his party receive 30% or more of the vote share, Dr Puglierin says, adding that below that figure “opens the field for possible competitors”.
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First projection shows conservative CDU in the lead
published at 18:38
18:38
Breaking
Here’s the first projection from German public broadcaster ARD. Unlike the earlier exit poll, a projection is based on real results, but as you can see, the numbers are very similar.
Initial projection
The Christian Democrats (CDU) are set for about 211 seats in parliament according to this calculation. If these numbers are borne out then they might be able form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), despite their poor performance.
But that depends on whether the yellow party – the economic liberal FDP – gets into parliament. If the FDP doesn’t get in, then the arithmetic works in the CDU’s favour.
Under 5% and the FDP won’t get in, but it’s too early to say.
There are 630 seats in the new parliament.
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‘We have a mandate to bring about political change’ – AfD leader
published at 18:30
18:30
Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel holding flowers, arm in arm and smiling.
Image source,Reuters
Image caption,
Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel
The leaders of the far-right AfD have just spoken and reacted to the exit polls which show their party in a comfortable second place.
Party co-chairman Tino Chrupalla says he is “very proud of our party”.
“We were united, our campaign was targeted and we were disciplined,” he says, standing alongside co-chairwoman Alice Weidel.
“We can really bring about a epochal change,” he says, adding “we are always open to negotiations”.
“We have received the confidence of the voters and that should be something everybody else accepts as well,” he adds.
Other parties have been adamant that they will not form a coalition with the AfD.
But Chrupalla says his party has been “given a mandate to bring about political change”.
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Unassailable lead for Merz, but he wanted more
published at 18:13
18:13
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin
Supporters of Friederich Mertz react with joy at exit polls
Image source,Getty Images
Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democrats have an unassailable lead, according to both exit polls.
So he will be in the box seat to form a new government. But if these numbers are borne out, it is not clear-cut if he can form a coalition with just one other party, the Social Democrats. It may all depend on whether one of the other parties gets into parliament or not.
If he needs to find a third party, it could take time, and he’s a man in a hurry.
But the other big story is that the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is set to become the second biggest force in German politics. Four years ago they polled just 10.4% and now they’re on course for 19.5%-20%, according to the exit polls.
Their message appears to have cut through with millions of Germans in the west as well as the east.
Exit polls are based on surveys of voters who have just cast their ballots at hundreds of representative polling stations. They tend to be relatively accurate, but we won’t need to wait long before we get projections which will be based on initial results.
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Second exit polls released
published at 18:09
18:09
Breaking
Here is another set of exit poll results, this time from German broadcaster ARD:
CDU – CSU – 29%
AFD – 19.5%
SPD – 16%
Greens – 13.5%
Die Linke – 8.5%
FDP – 4.9%
BSW – 4.7%
A close up of several people’s faces – men and women, looking serious and with their hands over their mouths.
Image source,Getty Images
Image caption,
Supporters of Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Berlin
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First exit polls are in
published at 18:07
18:07
Breaking
The exit poll from the ZDF broadcaster has just arrived:
CDU – CSU – 28.5%
AFD -20%
SPD – 16.5%
Greens -12%
Die Linke – 9%
FDP – 5%
BSW – 5%
Co-party leader of Germany’s left-wing party The Left (Die Linke) Jan van Aken and Heidi Reichinnek
Image source,Reuters
Image caption,
Jan van Aken and Heidi Reichinnek, of The Left (Die Linke) party, react to the first exit poll results
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Polls are closed – what happens now?
published at 18:00
18:00
People sort and count ballots in the postal voting centre in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on Sunday
Image source,Getty Images
It has just gone 18:00 in Germany, and polls have officially closed. Here’s what happens next:
We are expecting exit polls very soon. These are based on anonymous and voluntary surveys carried out at 560 (out of 80,000) polling stations. In 2021 they were relatively accurate
At about 18:30 local time (17:30 GMT) we’re expecting projections based on first counts of votes cast. These may be a bit different from the exit polls, because the exit polls don’t take into account postal voting. The projections do and they will improve as they update during the evening
Official results are expected early on Monday and coalition talks are likely to start soon after
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High energy at CDU HQ in Berlin
published at 17:56
17:56
The stage ready for speeches at the CDU headquarters, and lots of media standing around, with a lot of stage lights hanging from the ceiling.
With just a few minutes until polls close, there is an energetic – and very busy – atmosphere at the Berlin headquarters of the Christian Democrats, where the BBC’s Jessica Parker is reporting from.
“There’s a lot of media here because this is the party that expects to come top of the polling,” our correspondent says, adding that the beers are flowing.
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‘Mainstream parties have failed to reach out to young men’
published at 17:53
17:53
Jessica Parker & Kristina Volk
Reporting from Ilsede, Lower Saxony
Mika, in a blue jumper with shirt collar, smiling at camera.
Mika, a 23-year-old who we met at a social democratic (SPD) campaign event in Lower Saxony, said he’s worried the far-right AfD could gain more influence over the coming years.
Surveys and polls suggest that the AfD’s becoming increasingly popular among men of Mika’s age – which he believed is partly the fault of other parties.
“Especially the centre-left or left parties, they did not address young men in the past years, maybe in the past decade, because they are very into feminism.“
He said he personally has nothing against feminism but thinks the mainstream parties have failed to reach out to young men.
“I think it’s very sad that there are so many young men voting for the AfD, but they are addressing them and they say, we know your problems, we can solve them. Of course they cannot, but they say it. And I hope that the other parties would say that as well.”
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Smiles and selfies at AfD election HQ
published at 17:46
17:46
Nick Beake
Europe Correspondent
Men smile in suits and take a selfie at the AfD election HQ. A big blue sign is the background.
AfD supporters are arriving at their election night HQ in northern Berlin.
There’s food, drinks, music and laughter – all of which you might expect from a party which is forecast to double its percentage of votes on last time and finish as the second biggest party. There is particularly tight security all around the venue with police cordoning off nearby streets.
All of the big parties will have similar arrangements but the AfD is uniquely divisive. Critics say it is a racist and dangerous threat. Supporters here believe they speak for an increasingly larger number of Germans and have clear policies which put Germany first.
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The key thing to watch out for in this election
published at 17:39
17:39
Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent
We are now less than 30 minutes away from polls closing in Germany.
A key thing to watch out for in this election is what kind of parliamentary majority can be mustered together?
As the exit polls roll in, everyone will be crunching the numbers to see if the frontrunner to be the next Chancellor, conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz, has the option of forming a two-party coalition.
Or will he face the prospect of trying to form a three-party deal?
That’s absolutely what he wants to avoid. He’s aware of the bickering that has plagued current-Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tri-party coalition. That, of course, collapsed, sparking this snap poll.
Merz’s pledge to deliver a stronger administration in Berlin hinges, to some degree, on the mathematical possibilities that Germany’s electorate delivers.
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