As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ally, Alexander Lukashenko, prepares to stage another presidential election in Belarus in January, the country continues to face a serious threat of being dragged by the Kremlin into full participation in the war in Ukraine or even losing independence.
VOA Russian spoke to U.S. experts who painted a dim picture for Belarus for 2025, where Russia is continuing with a de facto annexation of Belarus, bringing the two authoritarian regimes ever closer together, while Lukashenko is risking his country’s independence just to keep himself in power.
Since the 2020 protests against President Alexander Lukashenko’s contested reelection, the country’s foreign policy has shifted entirely toward Russia. Facing Western sanctions and isolation, Lukashenko has abandoned a balanced approach to international relations, aligning closely with Moscow to maintain power.
Relations with Ukraine, once amicable, have deteriorated. Lukashenko’s recognition of Crimea as Russian territory marked a stark shift from earlier neutrality. Recent joint military exercises with Russia, announced amid rising tensions with Ukraine, signal the country’s growing role in enabling Moscow’s actions.
Economic and military ties with Russia have deepened, with agreements under the Union State framework and moves to allow Russian troops or nuclear weapons within its borders. Lukashenko’s decisions increasingly compromise the nation’s independence, folding its interests into Moscow’s agenda.
