About 50 European leaders met in Budapest on Thursday for a summit of the European Political Community, which was set up in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must stand up for itself as it prepares for the next Trump presidency in the United States.
“There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs: the United States of America on one side and China on the other, which above all seek their own interests,” Macron told the other European leaders.
“I think that our role here in the European Union is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people and that is legitimate and that is a good thing,” he said.
“The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. me, I think that is our priority,” he said.
The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.
“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute…… The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.
“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute…..
That can either be delivered through NATO — and there were some steps taken in this summer to sort of formalize those structures — but still significantly less than where it needs to be. It can also be done through the EU as well, which might increase slightly but probably not enough. Or it can be done bilaterally,” Arnold told VOA.
“I think actually the mechanisms are probably largely irrelevant. It’s more about the cost to individual nations, and that’s going to have to ramp up pretty quickly if they’re going to be able to have that impact,” he said.
Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of support for Kyiv?
“Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now,” according to analyst Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. “And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.
“I think for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they will look at this and they will say, ‘Russia is going to be an existential threat to us if it is allowed to control Ukraine. And therefore we must step up our efforts,'” Bond said.
On the campaign trail, Trump said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one, although he didn’t elaborate on how that would be achieved. In the past he has boasted of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin… Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable peace deal — and Europeans might change their calculations, said analyst Arnold of RUSI.
“There might be a bit of a worry where there’s some within Europe who say, “Why would we ramp up aid now if there’s going to be a negotiated settlement fairly soon? And I think the real risk for Europe as a whole — the EU but also NATO — is that actually the U.S. and Russia might start to do these negotiations without them,” Arnold said.
