Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have a hugely negative effect on climate change action in the short-term but the longer term impact is less certain, experts say.
With world leaders meeting next week for the latest UN climate talks, COP29, the Trump victory will be seen as a huge roadblock to progress in both cutting emissions and raising cash for developing countries.
The US president-elect is a known climate sceptic who has called efforts to boost green energy a “scam”.
But with renewable energy gaining a strong foothold in the US and popular support for wind and solar, Trump’s efforts to ramp up oil and gas instead may be less effective.
The intensity of hurricanes that recently hit the US has been linked to climate change
While climate change did not play much of a role in this year’s campaign, Trump’s likely actions in office this time could be far more significant than in 2017.
Back then, he announced the US would pull out of the Paris climate agreement, the most important UN process to tackle climate change. The agreement saw almost all the world’s nations – for the first time – agree to cut the greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming.
But the shock of Trump’s decision was limited. The treaty’s rules meant the US was not able to withdraw until November 2020, a few months before he left office.
If Trump withdraws again, he will only have to wait a year before the US is completely out. That would give him three years to chart his own course without any need to report to the UN or be bound by its rules.
While President Joe Biden’s negotiators will be at next week’s COP talks in Azerbaijan, nothing they agree to will be binding for the Trump administration.
“The US at this COP is not just a lame duck, it’s a dead duck,” said Prof Richard Klein, an expert on climate change policy for the Stockholm Environment Institute.
“They can’t commit to anything and that means that countries like China will not want to commit to anything.”
In recent years, richer countries such as the US, UK and EU states have tried to increase the funds available for developing countries to cope with climate change. But they also insist that big developing economies also contribute.
“The US basically wanted to have China cough up some money for that fund as well. Now they won’t be able to do that. That leaves China off the hook,” Prof Klein said.
Climate scientists say developing countries need billions of dollars of extra investment to become net zero, where they are not contributing to climate change, and stave off the effects of rising temperatures.
